Yuri SCHERBAK: Elections and choices

Elections and choices

1.

Ukraine has said good-bye to 2023 in a gloomy mood: it was a year of unfulfilled hopes for the quick victory over the enemy; a year of great sacrifices and the loss of groundless illusions caused by our victories in 2022 and inspired by Khlestakovs (Mykola Hohol’s fictional brazen character) and Arestovychs (former government spokesman) from the Office of the President of Ukraine; and a year of President Zelensky ‘s first failures in his communication with allies.

But it was also a year of unprecedented stability and courage shown by our warriors, a year of high-quality rearmament of the Armed Forces, an increase in the effectiveness of air defense and strategic victories in the Black Sea and the Crimea.

According to many analysts, the year 2023 can be compared to 1942 of the World War II - as a precursor to 1943 – i.e., a turning point when the Nazi beast had broken its neck on the battlefields of Ukraine.

Unfortunately, the year 2023 was also marked by a change in the mood of our allies in the West, when the voices of those who, sitting in the cozy offices of Washington and Brussels, started talking about the "disappointment" with the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the "need" for negotiations with putin, an international criminal and crazy dictator of russia, became even louder. Such talks would mean the capitulation of Ukraine, that is, its enslavement and destruction.

In 2023, the world found itself on the brink of World War III, as yet another conflagration ignited: Israel entered into battle with Hamas following unheard of atrocities committed by Palestinian thugs. The United States, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Turkey, and Iraq are getting involved in the turbulence of this supposedly local war, not to mention the russia’s ominous role.

The international situation of Ukraine worsened in 2023 due to the growing conflict with Poland, with the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość party that accuses Zelensky of following the interests of Germany and of being ungrateful to Polish partners for their help to Ukraine.

2.

The dangerous trends are unfolding before us in the new year of 2024. It is obvious that the fate of the russo-Ukrainian and Middle Eastern wars, and possibly the fate of the world, will be decided if new armed conflicts arise in Taiwan, the Baltic states, Poland, Finland or the Balkans, between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea along the fantasies of Putin and Xi Jinping.

Neither the scared Stoltenberg nor the overcautious Biden, who are trying to save the NATO from a direct confrontation with russia, can withstand the tsunami blow of the Third World War.

As always, the dark and disturbing future brings both new risks and new hopes.

In addition to the globalization of war, among the risks one should count the ever-increasing instability of the world architecture seriously destroyed by the modern horde that is trying to destroy the legal system of international relations.

New instability is caused by an “epidemic” of the 2024 elections: up to 80 electoral processes will take place in countries with the population of 4 billion, i.e. more than half of humankind. The practice of recent elections in the USA and Poland has shown that they often divide society into hostile camps, sharply weakening the state's resistance.

Among the fateful elections of 2024, there are such important ones as presidential races in the USA, Taiwan and India, as well as parliamentary elections in nine European countries and elections to the European Parliament.

I am not talking about the "elections" in russia, which turned into a farce with the appointment of a dictator by slaves on their knees.

The result of the US elections, with the quite likely defeat of the elderly Joe Biden who has neither the charisma of John Kennedy nor the determination of Ronald Reagan, may be a game changer in the American foreign policy and imply the falling of the United States into the abyss of isolationism with tragic consequences first for Ukraine and then for the USA itself.

The strengthening of left-wing and right-wing radical parties in Europe can bring to power yet another Orbán and Fico for whom putin's Botox-injected Mongolian face is a divine icon of the spiritual leader of the common herd gripped by hatred for the freedom and prosperity of neighboring nations.

3.

On a separate note, it is necessary to mention the UKRAINIAN elections.

Or their absence, to be more precise. In 2024, the term of the presidency and parliamentary duties would expire. However, it would be impossible to hold full-fledged democratic elections under the conditions of a brutal war.

It is clear that the term and powers of the current government should be extended. Changing the president by violent means (Maidan and similar actions) is unacceptable and would be a criminal gift to putin.

Therefore, there is a dire need already to think about additional measures to ensure the legitimacy of Zelensky and the Supreme Rada of Ukraine.

In my opinion, the current situation of Ukraine, which has found itself on the edge of the abyss and is experiencing a declining trust for the authorities, requires the adoption of decisive and extraordinary measures, namely:

1. Establishment of a national salvation (unity) government, which should include an "internal" military Cabinet. I believe that it should be headed by Petro Poroshenko, the fifth president of Ukraine who, perhaps, by analogy with the actions of Winston Churchill, could also head the Ministry of Defense. Petro Poroshenko has earned this extremely important position with his energy and effective assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The "external" government also needs to be reformatted and fresh forces introduced into it. We have an excellent pool of statesmen such as R. Pavlenko, V. Chaly, G. Tuka, V. Ariev, O. Rybachuk, V. Denisenko, S. Rakhmanin and many others not named here.

I would like to remind you that in Churchill's War Cabinet, in addition to the "ordinary" ministries such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Health and Social Security there were, for example, the "Ministry of Information" (not "Culture"), military production, reconstruction, aviation, etc. according to the needs of the frontline and rear services.

2. Zelensky's must get rid of those persons in the Office of the President who have lost trust of society and cause suspicion. Among such figures, I should name Mr. Yermak who thanks to his own vanity and lack of taste, has turned into a character of a small-town operetta, never taking a step away from the president, like Danish “Long and Short” comical characters, thereby humiliating the president himself by playing the role of regent for the young prince. Having assumed (unreasonably) the duties of the Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the USA, Yermak also humiliates Mr. Kuleba and Mrs. Markarova, surprising the Americans who are bewilderedly watching the brazen violations of diplomatic protocol and traditions.

3. Clear subordination of the administrative, economic, business, political, and informational spheres of the state activities to the goals of achieving VICTORY in the national war against the Russian aggressor through the adoption of relevant wartime laws and other executive acts (decrees, resolutions, instructions, etc.).

4. To determine the future political and administrative status of the Crimea taking into account the interests of the Crimean Tatar people. To create a Crimean government (temporarily in exile) providing it with the appropriate powers.

5. To publish a list of the main war criminals of russia who are subject to life-long criminal prosecution for the crimes committed, up to their liquidation.

6. To change the information policy by involving all TV channels in the fight against “russism” without dividing them into official and opposition ones. To create a powerful and comprehensive information body for informing foreign countries about the developments in Ukraine.

7. The top leadership of Ukraine should make every effort to improve relations with Poland and resolve existing conflicts in a constructive spirit to restore friendly strategic relations.

4.

Ukraine, its society, armed forces and the government, will have to make a difficult but indispensable choice some parameters of which have been listed above.

President Zelensky will have to make this choice. It will be a painful and difficult choice for a man who has been declared almost the ‘new Winston Churchill’, a man who rightly considers himself if not the Messiah, then the person who led the Ukrainian resistance in the most difficult times of the invasion and who had convinced and united the allies around our state.

And this role of Zelensky, talentedly played by him, despite many mistakes, no one can take away from him.

But carefully watching the latest press conference of the President of Ukraine in 2023, I saw an extremely tired, irritated person who was telling the main state secret. The secret of his loneliness, because there are but 5-6 people(!) in his immediate entourage.

And here we are talking about the supreme commander of the country at war!

If you read the memoirs of Winston Churchill, you will see all the difference between these characters.

When making a choice in favor of creating a National Salvation Cabinet, Zelensky should take into account not only the presence of the opposition (Labour Party leader Attlee in the Cabinet of the conservative Winston Churchill as well as the leader of the Liberal party), but also remember the example of the Polish general Jaruzelski, who in 1989 shared power with the opposition Solidarity Party. It is unlikely that the communist Jaruzelski, who in 1981 imprisoned and shot Solidarity members, fell in love with Lech Walesa. But he started negotiations and reached a compromise with the opposition.

It is also worth remembering the practice of the today’s Israeli government.

Benjamin Netanyahu, current Prime Minister who found himself at the center of fierce irreconcilable criticism after October 7, 2023, has shown the courage to invite General Benny Gantz, his main political enemy and opponent, to the "narrow" War Cabinet. The level of support for Netanyahu today is 15% among Israeli voters while Gantz is supported by 25% of them.

Lieutenant General Benny Gantz is one of the most popular statesmen in Israel, he holds a bachelor's degree in history, a master's degree in political science, and a master's degree in national infrastructure management. He accepted Netanyahu's invitation without any hesitation and, having received the position of "minister without portfolio", has led military operations and temporarily accepted the existing political situation without (yet) opposing the current prime minister.

Will Volodymyr Zelensky be able to take such a step? Will he be in a position to move away from the pernicious putin’s model of totalitarian manual control of the state? Will he understand the need to return to the parliamentary-and-presidential model of government and will he understand the need to return to the Supreme Rada the control function of real supervision over the executive power? Will he change the rhetoric of his numerous speeches, which give rise to the inflation of emotional metaphors and demand a different - strict and realistic - message to the people?

...In one of the comments on a social network, I have come across the following text: "Ukrainians do not want to fight for fatty Stefanchuk, Zelensky, FSB agent Yermak, and thieves and corrupt people who despise their people."

This is a false argument, a wrong message.

Ukrainians are fighting for their lives and freedom, for the future of their children, for the existence of the people and the great Ukrainian civilization, for their language and history.

And they have the right to demand that the authorities (and the persons named in the comment) listen to the voices and groans of their people in order to unite their efforts to defeat the moscow Evil Empire.

But you can win only with Taras Shevchenko in your heart, and not with the humor of Zhvanetsky and mean jokes of the "95th Quarter" comedians.

Ambassador Yuri Shcherbak, Independent Media Forum