Oleh K. ROMANCHUK: A state of uncertainty in a time of victory

Oleh K. ROMANCHUK: A state of uncertainty in a time of victory

The state of uncertainty is becoming dominant. It gives rise to irrational thinking in society, accompanied by fear, which blocks common sense.

1.

The world is inexorably slipping into the abyss of political, economic, ideological, and military uncertainty, with the realization of the threat of nuclear escalation from the aggressive Eurasian anti-system led by a “cigarette butt” dictator. There will be no more pre-war peaceful life. A political “axis of evil” is emerging more and more clearly on the planet. Discussions about the sustainable development of humanity are no longer of interest to many people, even scientists. Civilization is rapidly approaching the newest bifurcation point, hoping to discover new horizons of an attractive future. Homo sapiens' rosy plans for a brighter future are turning into illusions, so it flees into the realm of the irrational. With the beginning of the hot phase of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, the doctrine of social Darwinism, which had been taboo since World War II, is gaining more and more new supporters. The state of uncertainty is becoming dominant. It gives rise to irrational thinking in society, accompanied by fear that blocks common sense. The average person ceases to understand what is happening around them. “The war in Ukraine is the entrance to hell for all of humanity. If the world allows Ukraine to be destroyed, the planet will slowly burn in the hell of wars, lawlessness and injustice. Not all American and European elites want to realize this. However, Putin continues to escalate in order to forcefully impose conditions on Ukraine that are nothing more than capitulation to Moscow” (Viktor Kaspruk, political scientist, political analyst).

The laws of thinking, information processing and decision-making in a state of uncertainty are common to all intelligent systems – human and animal. Uncertainty is the most difficult psychological state. It is caused by a combination of two factors: the need to make a decision and the lack of necessary information to do so. In the absence of information, the thinking process turns into the creation of a series of successive hypotheses that are confirmed or refuted by reality. The time period between rejecting one hypothesis and moving on to another is characterized by a sharp increase in uncertainty, which is usually accompanied by the emergence of fear. Fear is, first and foremost, the inability to make decisions in situations of varying complexity, especially in life-changing situations: during war, economic depression, political crisis, and interpersonal relationships. Let's recall the classic experiment of the “dispute” between the digestive and defense reflexes in the famous experiments of physiologist Ivan Pavlov. A dog's cortical imagination for visual analysis is much less than a human's. That's why the dog starts to make mistakes when it perceives an oval as a circle: it salivates as if it were a circle, but instead of eating, it gets an electric shock. As a result, a typical neurosis occurs: the animal loses sleep, appetite, feels fear, its hair falls out, and even pathology of internal organs can develop. In other words, neurosis occurs when decision-making is impossible or difficult due to a mismatch between the power of an intelligent system and the complexity of the tasks at hand.

The common sense and logic of a person overwhelmed by fear is “turned off,” he or she is easily suggestible and believes in any proposed “rescue” remedy.

Let's turn to the classics. Robinson Crusoe, the hero of Daniel Defoe's famous novel, walking along the seashore, suddenly noticed a bare human footprint in the sand. Confused and frightened, the famous hermit lost sleep as he persistently analyzed the fact that a mysterious footprint had appeared on a desert island and could not find an acceptable explanation. The inability to construct a more or less plausible hypothesis frightened Robinson to no end, and he was forced to state: “The fear of danger terrifies us ten thousand times more than the danger itself when it is before our eyes. And the burden of fear is much heavier for us than the evil we fear.”

The instability of the political and economic situation makes people uncertain about the future and anxious about the fate of their children and loved ones. Stress, mental disorders, and cardiovascular diseases are largely caused by the uncertainty of the future. 

Today, Ukrainians are psychologically tired of the inability to see an attractive prospect for themselves, their families, and the state. This fear is firmly entrenched in the subconscious, creating a psychological situation of meaninglessness in planning for the future, which leads to social apathy with all the possible consequences.

In a state of uncertainty, it is easy to resort to substitution of concepts due to lack of logic/common sense and uncritical thinking. It's almost a classic: “73.2% of Ukrainians voted for Zelensky.” Let's think about it. The estimated number of voters eligible to vote in the 2019 presidential election was 30.2 million. The number of voters included in the voter lists at the polling stations where voting was organized and held was 30,105,004. The second round of voting was attended by 61.42%, i.e. 18.42 million citizens. According to the results of the CEC's calculation of 100% of the protocols, Volodymyr Zelenskyy won the presidential race with 73.22% of the vote. SIC! That is, 13,541,528 voters voted for him – LESS THAN HALF of the citizens of Ukraine who were eligible to vote.

The experiment with voting “for fun” is costing Ukrainians too much, as they are sinking deeper into political, economic, ideological, and military uncertainty almost every day.

Two decades ago, Doctor of Economics and sociologist Yuriy Sayenko made a harsh diagnosis: “The most important reason for all our troubles is being in a state of 'chronic uncertainty'. Ukraine is moving from one uncertainty to another. Having failed to solve the problems of the past, we find ourselves in situations that further burden us with the past. And there is less and less time to solve the problems of the strategic future. We live in a state of archaic time. The transition to a state of perspective time, when the present is directed to the future, is moving away from us. Like the horizon is moving away.”

The war in the minds of citizens has increased the state of uncertainty, which is especially dangerous for the functioning of such a complex system as the army. Unlike society, the army cannot remain in a state of uncertainty for a long time, as the passage of time will inevitably lead to confusion and depression among the personnel, their demoralization, and panic. The army system becomes uncontrollable, the army suffers degradation and destruction, and the fight against the enemy stops.

The inconsistency in the actions of the top state leadership disorients Ukrainian society and increases uncertainty.

This is how Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his belief in victory in an interview with Time after a trip to the United States in September 2023: “No one believes in our victory as much as I do” (Originally published: October 30, 2023).

However, a year later, on November 19, in an interview with Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/media/zelenskyy-fears-danger-ukraine-loses-unity-defeat-us-cuts-funds-1000-days-war-began), the Ukrainian president said that if the United States cuts military aid to Kyiv, Ukraine will lose: “If they do, I think we will lose. Of course, in any case, we will stay, we will fight. We have our own production, but it is not enough to win. And I think it is not enough to survive. But if this is the American choice, we will decide what to do.”

Sic! “We will decide what to do” (?!). Such a contradictory statement can only increase the state of uncertainty in society. Because three days before this statement, Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured his listeners in an interview with Ukrainian Radio on November 16: “On our part, we must do everything to ensure that the war ends next year. Through diplomatic means. This is very important”.

But two weeks later, this opinion was clarified. Thus, on November 29, in an interview with the British TV channel Sky News, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that an agreement to end the “hot phase of the war” is possible if Ukraine is offered NATO membership even without the temporarily occupied territories. A natural question arises: what if Ukraine is not offered membership in the Alliance? It is ridiculous to hope that Ukraine will be invited to join the EU and NATO in the near future. It is doubtful that the members of the Alliance, whom Petro Poroshenko called on to extend an invitation to Ukraine during his speech at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Canada, will listen to the former president's arguments.

Since the beginning of Russia's large-scale aggression, Zelenskyy has not stated that he would give up the occupied territories, including Crimea. Now he believes that the occupied territories can be returned diplomatically. Imagine the effort it will take to restore the status quo to the territory of the Ukrainian state. Moscow will never forget about Ukraine, even if it gives something back. Nothing similar to the history of the return of the territories of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia occupied by the Stalinist USSR will happen.

2.

On November 27, Andriy Yermak wrote on the website of Dagens Industri that returning the situation to the state as of February 23, 2022, could lead to the start of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on a ceasefire and the end of the war. However, it is unclear how exactly this could happen.

Three days later, on December 1, in an interview with the Japanese news agency Kyodo News Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Armed Forces lacked the strength to return the occupied territories. “Our army lacks the strength to do this. This is true. We really need to find diplomatic solutions,” the president said. He emphasized that we will return the occupied territories and Crimea through diplomatic means. And only when we know that we have enough strength and that Russia will not be able to launch a new aggression against Ukraine.

Ukrainians may wonder: what will happen to Ukraine's strategic asset, the city of Pokrovsk, the loss of which will lead to a collapse in the metallurgy industry by at least 60 percent? Are we going to surrender the main source of coking coal to the enemy and then return it through diplomacy?

The uncertainty is off scale...

At the end of his speech in the Ukrainian Government Verkhovna Rada on October 16, 2024, Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured the audience that “there are no enemies inside Ukraine.” But on October 20, in his video address, he said the opposite: “Unfortunately, in the rear here in Ukraine, things are happening that do not require any enemies. This is a real internal enemy.”

Again, uncertainty. Because of the illogicality of the statements.

The position of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on the role of the Armed Forces' senior command is unclear. On November 23, on the Day of Remembrance of the Holodomor Victims in Ukraine, at the III International Conference on Food Security Grain From, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated: “A general who has not been in a trench is not a general for me, despite his experience. With all due respect, today the most difficult situation is on the front line, in the trench. Generals must be in the trenches. That's the way the war is.”

Does being in the trenches and bunkers make senior officers more professional? Misunderstanding the role of the generals can lead to a state of uncertainty that is dangerous for the army environment.

Ten years ago, Doctor of Law Volodymyr Vasylenko noted: “Petro Poroshenko, elected President of Ukraine on May 25, 2014, did not use all his powers and did not ensure the transfer of Ukraine's armed resistance to Russian aggression from the anti-terrorist operation regime to the regime of repulsing the armed aggression of the Russian Federation in accordance with paragraphs 1, 17, 20 of Article 106 of the Constitution of Ukraine and Article 4 of the Law of Ukraine “On Defense of Ukraine” and Law of Ukraine No. 1647-III “On the Legal Regime of Martial Law” of April 6, 2000.”

In this context, a natural question arises: who prevented Volodymyr Zelenskyy from mobilizing in 2022-2023, using the right of the guarantor of the Constitution? Article 4 and Article 11 of the Law of Ukraine on Mobilization state that it is the President who determines the form, methods and other components of mobilization. According to Article 106 of the Constitution of Ukraine, the President “decides, in accordance with the law, on general or partial mobilization and the introduction of martial law in Ukraine or in certain areas of Ukraine in the event of a threat of attack or a threat to the state independence of Ukraine.” It is the President who decides on mobilization. Not the government or the Verkhovna Rada. Because according to Part 2 of Article 102 of the Constitution of Ukraine, it is the President who is the guarantor of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. He is charged with the responsibility of ensuring the inviolability of its external borders, and of stopping any attempts to dismember the territory of Ukraine or separate any part of it. It is also required to understand the complex socio-psychological processes in the context of war: the division of society into supporters and opponents of a military solution to the pressing problems and those who are indifferent to the events, the social and psychological unity of society. In other words, we are talking about fighting the state of uncertainty.

The draft law “On the Declaration of a State of War”, submitted by Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine as urgent (No. 7114 of February 24, 2022), has strangely (?) disappeared somewhere...

It is appropriate to recall what the basic military rules, criteria and laws are. Having received a combat task from a superior officer, the commander clarifies it, assesses the situation, makes a decision, gives a combat order and organizes interaction. Decision-making is a complex mental process involving the study, comparison, and evaluation of a large number of facts, usually in a very limited time. Situation assessment refers to the set of conditions in which a unit is to operate while performing a combat mission. The situation is determined by the composition, grouping and nature of the actions of the enemy, their own troops, neighbors, social class composition, political mood of the population, time of year and day, etc. In other words, the subordinate must clearly understand and realize everything. He should not be in a state of uncertainty.

At the beginning of the last century, military psychological science formulated a kind of socio-psychological law that reflects the relationship between the state of psychology of society and its army: the main source of the moral and psychological state of a fighting army is not within it, but in the society whose interests it defends. In 1892, M. Zenchenko, studying the “moral strength” of a soldier, made three conclusions: 1) the personality of a warrior is derived from social conditions; 2) the army is an exact copy of the state, a miniature, a mirror of it with all its virtues and vices; 3) the power of the army requires the sympathy of the entire population; 4) no enthusiasm in the army is possible if there is no enthusiasm in the Fatherland.

3.

The leadership of the Ukrainian state and its citizens must finally move from the consciousness of peace to the consciousness of war. History teaches us that any concessions and concessions to the aggressor, demonstration of weakness and fear disguised as peacefulness, are only encouragement and provocation of the enemy to further aggression. The state of uncertainty must be ended, as it can provoke internal aggression. The state of uncertainty in society stirs up the mood of citizens, raising doubts about the ability of the ruling elite to restore order in the country.

Numerous propaganda slogans reminded Soviet citizens of the mortal danger that hung over the USSR in 1941: “In work, as in battle!”, ‘The front is necessary – we will do it!’, ‘We will mercilessly defeat and destroy the enemy!’, ‘Be vigilant!’, etc. Communist officials were very well aware of the importance and effectiveness of visualizing the propaganda mechanism as an ideological factor. Posters with various patriotic themes and slogans were pasted all over the country. Millions of copies of various propaganda materials created by talented poster artists performed their mobilizing function. Professionally created generalized images of heroes-defenders and insidious enemies explained, supported, and motivated the people in the fight against the brown invasion in the most lucid way possible.

It is therefore surprising that the current Ukrainian government has not yet taken advantage of the experience of not only the Soviet, but also American or British agitprop of the Second World War. Do we really lack poster artists capable of mobilizing their talent to defend the homeland? Is the Ukrainian state unable to organize the replication of propaganda materials needed for both the front and the rear?

“Everything for the front! Everything for victory!” Joseph Stalin made this patriotic appeal to the citizens of the Soviet Union during his radio speech on July 3, 1941. A few days earlier, this idea had been incorporated into a directive of the Council of People's Commissars of the USSR.

The People's Commissariat of the USSR developed a program to transform the country into a single combat camp in a short time, with a single goal: to defeat the Nazis. The clear and understandable call was supported by all segments of the USSR population.

In 2022, Congresswoman Victoria Spartz asked Ukrainians where the war economy was. The question is natural-the United States has historical experience in solving this problem. A month after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the American president created the War Production Board, which was tasked with putting the American economy on a war footing. The results were immediate: the production of military aircraft increased from 6,000 in 1940 to 85,000 in 1943. And not just airplanes...

This year, on November 27, Victoria Spartz, a Republican congresswoman from Indiana, in a conversation with a CNN presenter, admitted that «two years ago was a moment when you can push Russia to the table, but not just by weapons, but also by energy policies and real sanctions».

When asked by a journalist whether it was time for President Zelensky to sit down with Putin and how the Trump administration could force Russia to negotiate, Spartz gave an extremely harsh response: «President Zelensky failed his Ukrainian people. You know, he didn’t get ready the country for the war. He’s not very supportive of his own military. He didn’t deal with corruptions. And he does a lot of great U.S. presentations. But he didn’t do a draft, didn’t get military ready. And he did nothing to really support his own people that bravely died for freedoms. And that is on him.

Unfortunately, President Biden led this war to be where we are right now. I was very critical of him. He didn’t push on him enough. But ultimately, you know, he’s judged by the American people. And he was judged, and his administration was not reluctant. You know, President Zelensky is judged by Ukrainian people. He betrayed and failed the Ukrainian people not to win that war for them, and not to fight to win that war. Very difficult when you deal with leaders and not trying to win the war».

This is the opinion of an American of Ukrainian descent, a congresswoman. This is her right.

Meanwhile, another scandal erupts in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine over low-quality 120-mm mines. A huge batch of defective ammunition, which is desperately needed at the front, has been seized from combat units.

Who is to blame? Saboteurs, saboteurs, pests, ignorant people, corrupt officials, slobs, ignorant people, incompetent workers? The range of answers and explanations is wide and ambiguous. For example, one of the members of the Subcommittee on State Security, Defense and Defense Innovations categorically explained that the quality of the ammunition was affected by the weather. However, according to this logic, the weather can also have a negative impact on the serviceability of drones. And not only that. It can be assumed that since there is a danger of turning on ourselves during the investigation, the public will probably continue to be in a state of uncertainty.

Be that as it may, we are talking about a decrease in the combat capability of the Ukrainian army. Will the culprits be found? Every problem has a name and a surname. However, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is primarily responsible for all military failures, followed by his subordinates. One of them, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, against whom the High Anti-Corruption Court ordered NABU to open a criminal case (HACC ruling of August 25, 2023 in case 991/7415/230), urgently went to South Korea, hoping to negotiate the supply of ammunition and weapons for Ukraine. The visit was unsuccessful. The minister was apparently not informed that South Korean law prohibits arms exports to countries at war. Meanwhile, according to the head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, the DPRK handed over 100 artillery systems to Russia, including M1989 self-propelled howitzers and M1991 rocket launchers, as well as millions of artillery shells and dozens of 7,500-pound KN-23 ballistic missiles...

4.

The famous Chinese strategist Sun Tzu emphasized that war is a path of deception. He wrote that a war plan is “weighed by seven calculations” – preliminary consideration of the situation, the ratio of forces and combat training. In other words, all circumstances are “weighed”. Sun Tzu did not mention the victory plan.

On October 16, President Volodymyr Zelensky presented the Victory Plan for Ukraine in the war against Russia to the Verkhovna Rada. It did not talk about mobilization, the construction of fortifications, the modernization of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, the creation of a network of training centers for the training of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or the fight against corruption. In the style of chutzpah, demands were announced to the collective West, which can be interpreted as a kind of blackmail: if you do not give us what we want, you will be to blame for our defeat.

Just a few of the most characteristic fragments of the speech – a classic stream of consciousness from the rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada: “The Victory Plan of Ukraine is a plan to strengthen our state, to strengthen our positions. To be strong enough to end the war. So that Ukraine has all its muscles. This Plan can be implemented. It depends on partners. I emphasize: on partners”; “We held a successful inaugural Peace Summit and we were able to prove that this negotiation format – it can be successful for the main thing – to end the war”; “The Victory Plan is a way to strengthen Ukraine. This is exactly the kind of strengthening of Ukraine that is needed not only to protect our positions, Ukrainians, but also to lay a bridge – a bridge to holding a second Peace Summit, which will put a fair end to this war for Ukraine”; “If Russia’s war against Ukraine ends at the Peace Summit and on the basis of international law, this will convince other potential aggressors not to start other wars. And if Putin achieves his crazy goals – geopolitical, military, ideological and economic, it will create an irresistible impression among other potential aggressors, particularly in the Gulf region, the Indo-Pacific region and Africa, that wars of aggression can be profitable for them too”; “Russia must lose the war against Ukraine. And this is not a “freeze. And this is not a trade in territories or the sovereignty of Ukraine. We must implement the Victory Plan to force Russia to be at the Peace Summit and be ready to end the war”; “Ukraine is home to natural resources, and in particular critically important metals worth trillions of US dollars. These include uranium, titanium (The Cabinet of Ministers has decided to privatize one of the largest producers of titanium raw materials in the world, the United Mining and Chemical Company (UMCC)). As a result, 100% of the shares were sold for 4 billion hryvnias to Azerbaijani entrepreneur Nasib Hasanov, the only participant in the auction. See my article “What is put on the map of statehood”), lithium, graphite and other strategic and strategically valuable resources that will strengthen either Russia and its allies, or Ukraine and the democratic world, in global competition”; “Ukrainians have proven that they can be the force that Russian evil cannot overcome.”

Zelensky spoke pompously about the so-called Peace Formula: “This is a guarantee of negotiations without forcing Ukraine to injustice. Ukrainians deserve a decent peace. The Victory Plan will pave the way to this. The Victory Plan is a guarantee that the madmen in the Kremlin will lose the opportunity to continue the war. And therefore, the Victory Plan is a bridge to the implementation of the Formula, to the implementation of the Summit, a path to honest diplomacy”…

Realizing that the Victory Plan was criticized, Volodymyr Zelensky proposed an internal Resilience Plan. This was stated in an interview with Glavkom by the director of the Eurasian Center of the Atlantic Council, US Ambassador to Ukraine in 2003-2006 John Herbst.

So on November 19, the President of Ukraine presented the Resilience Plan in the Verkhovna Rada - mostly pompous words, declarations, a set of standard phrases about everything good against everything bad. Not a single mention that the war began in 2014, and this, of course, devalues ​​the heroism and self-sacrifice of the fallen and the living in the ten-year Russian-Ukrainian war. Courage and resilience, an amazing ability to self-organize, Ukrainians will demonstrate in February-March 2022. Without any "Resilience Plan".

5.

Andriy Yermak, at the head of the Ukrainian delegation, is participating in negotiations with the team of the newly elected US president. Is he the chief Ukrainian diplomat? Whatever it is, but Victoria Spartz, who, at Trump’s personal request, ran for a second term in the US Congress, is unlikely to forgive Zelensky’s entourage and Yermak personally for the fabrications and lies spread on Bankova Street. And who knows, maybe Viktoria Spartz will suggest that the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine stop getting confused and wrap it in a piece of paper: “Listen, the country should be transferred to a military regime, and this should have been done two years ago.”

This advice, after all, should not surprise anyone. So, in the story of a retired Croatian general, an international expert Natalia Ishchenko, the main idea was the organization of general resistance to the enemy by Ukrainian citizens: “Do you understand that you have to mobilize 10% of the population, that is, at least 3 million people?” There is iron logic in this question: in Croatia, which won, and where the population is 4 million, there were 500 thousand in the army. Does the Supreme Commander-in-Chief know about this?

On July 8, 2022, a member of the US House of Representatives, Victoria Spartz, asked Joe Biden to provide an explanation regarding the alleged ties with Russia of the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak. The congresswoman also mentions in the letter that he appointed Oleg Tatarov as his deputy for law enforcement, while he “has been delaying the appointment of an independent anti-corruption prosecutor for more than a year, which is why the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau are not functioning.”

Official Kyiv reacted sharply to the congresswoman’s letter. As we now understand, the reaction was premature, in vain…

Something irrational is happening in Ukraine. It seems that something has been done to her. Thus, a person who has been sanctioned by the US and Britain for corruption and abuse of power receives a Certificate of Honor from the Verkhovna Rada for special services to the Ukrainian people. One can continue to list the political, diplomatic, economic, and military “scams” ​​that are plunging the Ukrainian state and its citizens deeper into a state of uncertainty.

Even the mass media headlines can serve as a kind of confirmation of this gloomy conclusion: “Energy “corruption” exposes Ukrainians to deadly cold in winter,” writes The Times”; “Kyiv’s failure to build bunkers for substations that protect them from Russian air strikes has made the country vulnerable to winter”; “Trust in Ukraine has been catastrophically undermined. We risk losing everything”; “Ukraine is ready to “freeze” the war, but there is a condition”; “Volodymyr Zelensky is now not against NATO guarantees for the territory controlled by Ukraine”…

Uncertainty is also growing in the world: “Romania in protests! People take to the streets against pro-Russian authorities”; “Large-scale anti-government protests in Spain”; "Tbilisi has been gripped by mass protests against the pro-Russian government. The "Maidan" in Georgia is gaining momentum: the people have rebelled against the Russian Federation. Georgians are against the "Russian world"; "Syria is coming under the control of the rebels. Russian military bases have already been captured. Russian aviation has struck Aleppo in Syria. The end of the Assad regime. There is a mutiny in Damascus"; "Erdogan has "abandoned" the Kremlin, a fatal humiliation for Putin. Erdogan openly declared the ineffectiveness of the United Nations. The UN must be reformed"; "Betrayal from Poland: a wall on the border with Ukraine?"; "The newly elected US president said that ending the war in Ukraine will require a complex diplomatic solution that will take into account the interests of all parties to the conflict. His vision envisages direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow with the participation of the US as a mediator, where the key element will be the strategy of "peace through force"...

6.

The victory of Donald Trump and the Republican Party will cause significant changes in US foreign policy, and Ukraine will lose the most from this. This is what political economist, philosopher, and professor at Stanford University Francis Fukuyama believes. However, the predictions of this world-famous futurologist have not always come true.

One way or another, Ukrainians are facing a difficult period. It is unknown when the state of uncertainty will end. Despite this, the Ukrainian state must be re-established. Without delay, without letting go of the machine gun, while being under brutal military pressure from Moscow and its satellites.

There are several scenarios for possible developments in the near future. Will Trump be able to put pressure on Ukraine in such a way that it agrees to territorial losses, but will receive a convincing security guarantee in return? If Putin breaks off relations with China to please the US, then Trump can hold negotiations with Ukraine on Putin's terms. That is, there is a possibility that the American president will force Ukraine to conclude a unilateral peace agreement with Russia, which will make Kyiv vulnerable. In this case, Ukraine's survival will depend on whether the European community can protect it, which currently looks quite problematic. The collective West must take into account 1000 days of the Russian-Ukrainian war and finally make its final choice.

Some Ukrainian historians are sincerely convinced that there will be no second political Yalta in Europe. Not a fact. The glory and merits of the army do not influence the decisions of politicians.

On November 30, the head of the Polish government, Donald Tusk, announced that Poland would build fortifications within the framework of the Eastern Shield project not only on the border with Russia and Belarus, but also on the border with Ukraine.

Doctor of Chemical Sciences Octavian Ksenzhek warns: “The very fact of the existence of Ukraine in its current very uncertain state can be interpreted both as “for health” and “for peace”, but still leaves hope that we have some residual “statesman instinct”.

Hope, as we know, dies last. There is uncertainty and the unknown ahead. Any scenarios are possible. Most likely, not in our favor. For example, we cannot rule out the option of President Donald Trump waving his hand at Ukraine. But we have no right to capitulate. We have no right to surrender to the enemy. This is, after all, disrespect for those who fell on the battlefield in brutal battles for their homeland.

When studying the situation, a professional analyst, primarily a military one, first considers the worst option, then the average, and only then the best option. So let's be realistic and get out of the worst. And the best will always join in and do its part...

Ukrainians do not need war. However, hoping for a just peace next year is most likely premature.

Although...

“We will do everything to end this war. And we have every opportunity to end this war next year. We can do it, but only together with Europe, together with the United States and, of course, together with Ukraine,” Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with Sky News.

Should we believe it? For some reason, the frankness of the Ukrainian president in an interview with the Washington Post on August 16, 2022 came to mind, when he reported that if people had been told about a possible war earlier, it would have led to a large-scale panic, and it would have been more difficult to defend themselves. Zelensky’s direct language: “You can’t just tell me: “Listen, you have to start preparing people now and tell them that they need to save money, they need to stock up on food.” If we had announced this (so that the population would prepare for a possible war – O. R.) – and this is what some people, whom I will not name, wanted – then I would have lost 7 billion dollars a month, starting from October of last year, and at the moment when the Russians really attacked, they would have captured us in three days.”

P. S.

The visit of the Ukrainian delegation to the United States was unsuccessful, to put it mildly. Zelenskyy made a mistake by sending a rather motley delegation to the United States during a difficult period of transition, led by a man whom American politicians do not trust very much.

Republicans face three problems in dealing with Ukrainian officials: Andriy Yermak, Oleh Tatarov, and Oksana Markarova. These people are toxic to Trump's team because they create obstacles to the normalization of interstate relations. The first two problems have long been pointed out by Victoria Spartz. The third is Mike Johnson, who has repeatedly demanded the dismissal of the Ukrainian ambassador to Washington.

The Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko, who is also the deputy prime minister, hardly added to the legitimacy of the delegation. In June 2024, law enforcement officials became interested in the possible involvement of the First Deputy Prime Minister and her brother Vitaliy Svyrydenko in kickback schemes for the construction of fortifications and infrastructure in Chernihiv region.

The unwavering position of Mike Johnson, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, who said he would not put to a vote Joe Biden's proposal to allocate an additional $24 billion to Ukraine, can be considered a kind of outcome of the Ukrainian delegation's U.S. tour.

At the same time, a new corruption scandal erupts: a Polish "gasket" that has already disrupted two contracts with the Ukrainian Defense Ministry claims 23 billion hryvnias for the purchase of ammunition bypassing the Defense Procurement Agency...

Perhaps Yermak decided to consult with former commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny on this matter and therefore flew from Washington to London?

And then to Warsaw? Because the danger of deterioration in Ukrainian-Polish relations – the opposition party «Law and Justice» has submitted a bill to the Sejm that aims to facilitate criminal prosecution for denying crimes against Poles in Volyn. They say that "today's Ukraine continues to pursue a historical policy that denies the fact and, in particular, the scale of the genocide committed by the OUN-B and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army..."

You don't need to be a great analyst to understand the direction in which the American president's European policy will be shaped. With whom does he first of all consult? With... Orban. As they say, no comment.

Does Donald Trump fully understand Putin's morbid aspirations in interpreting the odious Hungarian? That it is not about Crimea, Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, or even Kherson. Because in reality, Putin wants to take over the whole of Ukraine. Because he has been dreaming of restoring the Soviet Union, the Russian Empire, since his Lubyanka days... And without Ukraine, this is impossible.

Meanwhile, the New York Times writes, that Ukraine's military efforts showing signs of exhaustion and its Defense Forces losing ground every day. So there are fears that the period leading up to Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 could prove extremely difficult as Russia tries to seize as much territory as possible before any negotiations begin.

Bloomberg draws attention to specific facts: "Since 2022, nearly 96,000 criminal cases have been opened in Ukraine against military personnel who left their units after Russia's invasion, according to the Prosecutor General's Office. This is a six-fold increase over the past two years, and most of the cases were opened this year."

The topic of the Armed Forces' heroic resistance to the aggressor has faded into the background, even into the third plan. Not without the efforts of the Ukrainian authorities. In a time of war, corruption and theft arouse interest and concern. First of all, among supporters of Ukraine. The consequences are already visible. And they are not good.

Everything points to the fact that the Americans are now thinking about how to make a deal with Putin at the expense of Ukraine. Trump is not going to clean up the mess in this corrupt Eastern European country.

The next two months will be critical for Ukraine. We need to save the country today, tomorrow it will be too late.

Oleh K. ROMANCHUK, PhD,

publicist, editor-in-chief of the magazine “Universum”

Viktoria O. ROMANCHUK, PhD