The war should not go on long, - Juri Scherbak, writer and diplomat

                              The Show Must Go On.

                               Inside my heart is breaking,

                                My make-up may be flaking.

                                But my smile still stays on.

                                        QUEEN, 1991

                                                  1.

2022 spring I had honor to open the international conference ‘University and war’ in Jagiellonian University (Krakow, if someone did not know) with the participation of Polish and Ukrainian scientists. Two days before the conference, my colleagues from a Ukrainian-Polish Independent Media Forum and I, were invited to the conference and we had the possibility to speak with Polish professors and students of Jagiellonian University. We were enchanted by the warm atmosphere of those meetings and the compassion of our Krakow colleagues, their friendly treatment of Ukraine and Ukrainians. Performing the opening, I was telling about a tragedy of Ukrainian universities, in particular those that turned out to be in occupied by Russia areas. I was urging them to reconstructing of the system of university education and scientific research in accordance with the needs of the material law.

I did not know then that there was a department of ‘National Safety’ (I am not sure if there is something like that in any of Ukrainian universities) exactly in Jagiellonian University, and that the teaching staff of this department prepares an analytical and prognostic study about the war in Ukraine.

In February this year appeared a collective monograph of Polish colleagues “WAR MUST GO ON: Dynamika wojny w Ukrainie I jej reprekusje dla biezpieczeństwa Polski”, red. Artur Gruszczak, Księgarnia Akademicka, Kraków 2023. I attentively read this multi-faceted interesting study, which led me to a number of thoughts. Although I am not going to write a review (it is a Polish specialists’ business), I would like to share some of my thoughts that the monograph touches upon aspects of Russia’s war of aggression that are very sensitive for Ukrainians, in particular, such as its final result and the end terms.

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Let us get started with a name. Firstly, the urge “WAR MUST GO ON” seemed strange to me, this war is not a short-term campaign like the German aggression against Poland in September 1939 or the Wehrmacht’s attack on France in the summer of 1940. Russia’s war against Ukraine started not in 2022, but in 2014 and at once brought big territorial (Crimea, Donbass) and human (Illovai boiler) losses, and almost ended with the defeat of Ukraine at the initial stage.

This bloody and exhausting war, which they compare in terms of intensity to the First, more often to the Second World War, has been going on for 9 years – 2 years longer than the Second World War. The thuggish, provoked by nothing, full-scale invasion of the Moscow horde on 24th of February 2022, brought enormous demographic losses and destruction. So the one prayer for Ukrainians and, I hope, Poles, is to end the war as soon as possible.

Long war for exhausting – this is Putin’s dream, because only an endless war continues his unlimited hold, which has already spread for almost a quarter of a century.

Reading the redactor’s explanation, I realized: the name of the book is a paraphrase of known song of rock band QUEEN “SHOW MUST GO ON”, and reflects “the pessimistic view of the author’s team regarding the long- term character\nature of the war in Ukraine”. This thought about the next long-term Russian-Ukrainian war with “variable intensity” that “will not bring victory to any of the parties to the conflict” (one of the authors of the research claims that “it is doubtful whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine have such reserves to drastically change the situation on the front”) repeats on the book pages and, of course, has a place for existing as an any hypothetic.

Last time there were a lot of similar prognoses, equally as hopes for a soon victory. However, remember: only the results of brutal battles on Ukrainian battlefields will decide the destiny of this war and terms of its end.

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By the way, the known Queen song “SHOW MUST GO ON” was written in 1991 in tragic condition of Freddie Mercury’s deadly disease, of genius, punished or maybe awarded by God for his stormy superhuman passions. This sad circus’ phrase “show must go on” defines that when a tightrope walker falls into the arena, the circus continues. Man is mortal, art is eternal. Freddie’s voice last time appeared on the soundtrack of this song. And really: show must go on eternally, but the war – not.

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Trying to stand on objectivism and political realism position in H. Kissinger’s style, on the one hand, authors resolutely expose the imperial messianic-orthodox invasion doctrine of the “Russian peace”, which opposes the “rotten West” – so it is the universal norms of democracy, freedom and sovereignty. They compare Putin to Tramp, believing that this Russian “global gangster” wants to MAKE RUSSIA GREAT AGAIN.

On the other hand, their despondency in quick victory of Ukraine and in Western allies is based on the fact that Russia during this war “did not became a world pariah”, saving its strong potential. There is information that 90% out of Help to Ukraine deliver only 6 countries, including Poland. We may remember the fatigue of European society from the war, the desire of average people to have “holy peace”. In September 2022, only 48% of interviewed people in Germany were supported delivering weapons to Ukraine, and 50% were against it.

Authors point out that “chances for peace negotiations” between Russia and Ukraine are minimal; they repeat Putin’s narrative that “Russia is not going to stop until it wins”. They emphasize the large mobilization capabilities of the Russian federation and claim that “Putin cannot change his position”. It is all volens-nolens makes the reader agree with the pessimistic authors’ conclusion regarding Ukraine’s doom for a long time, full of torment and suffering, an almost hopeless war against the Russian aggressor. A war of attrition. And defeat. This is a conclusion that Ukrainian society will never agree with.

Therewith, there appears a question – why do not authors give other, more optimistic arguments for objectivity and balance of their thoughts? Why do not they remember about the coalition of 50+ countries, known as “Rammstein”, where the USA, Poland and the other allies, in close cooperation with the Ukrainian military, resolve the issue of providing enormous military-technical assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Why do not they fix the changes of attitude in the White House and NATO headquarters (I am not even talking about the determination of the leadership of Poland), about the necessity to speed the course of the war up and create all the conditions for Ukraine’s victory.

Is it worth following only one – pessimistic – hypothetic and reject another one that has an equal right to exist. 

On the other hand, in my mind, the authors demonstrate excessive optimism when they convince that “Russia is not a danger for the East and for Poland”, which, they say, is well integrated into the Eastern defense structures; according to Krakow researchers, such a threat may appear in 5-10 years. I would not underestimate the possibility of aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the Central and Eastern European region at any moment, knowing the predator nature of Russian imperialism and paranoid Putin’s nature well, with his at all not empty nuclear threats. The president of Poland, A. Duda, not in vain raises the question about the need to deploy a nuclear umbrella over Poland within the framework of the Sharing Nuclear program.

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The second part of the Jagiellonian University scientists’ research: “Consequences of conflict in Ukraine (by the way, why “conflict”, but not war?) for Poland’s safety” (“Skutki konfliftu w Ukrainie dla bezpieczeństwa Polski”) became the most valuable one. With deep knowledge of the matter and patriotic commitment, Polish experts discuss affairs of their country’s military potential, the civilian crisis management system, Poland’s energy, internal and intelligence security during the Russian invasion in Ukraine, make critical remarks and put forward constructive offers aimed at strengthening Poland’s defense capabilities.

There is an interesting and educational article, in which they tell how Poland came out of gas-oil-coal dependence on Russia and managed to announce “energy sovereign” by holding a decisive diversification of sources of supply of energy carriers. I would add to this an ambitious Polish plan for building a powerful sector of nuclear energy, about which evinced the agreements between the USA and Korean Republic about the beginning of the construction of the first nuclear reactors.

Among the challenges to Poland’s internal security (intensification of Russia’s espionage activities in its interest in ways of supplying weapons to Ukraine and attempts to influence the mood of Polish society, etc.), attention is attracted to the forecast regarding the strengthening of anti-Ukrainian propaganda  by radical right-wing forces in connection with the parliamentary elections in the fall of 2023; an unpleasant surprise for Ukraine and Polish-Ukrainian friendly relations would be the entry into the next government of the Republic of Poland of the pro-Moscow party called “Confederation”.

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I fully agree with the advice of the authors of the book “War Must Go On” that “we should refrain from too often claiming about the approaching end of the war” and Ukraine’s success, which we may see in a number of posts. I myself hate the blasphemous, hat-throwing praises of some Ukrainian sofa prophets, who since the first days of the full-scale Russian invasion, have been predicting the end of the war in a month…two…three...etc, provoking the fury of our soldiers, who, dripping with blood, meeting face to face with a cruel and treacherous enemy. Wise Ukrainian phrase teaches: do not say “hop” until you manage to jump through.

But I also reject the straight and primitive logic of those experts that do not understand that this war is existential for the Ukrainian people: its loss will define the death of our country, nation, culture, language and history. It is easy to measure the amount of weapons and human reserves. It is tough to measure the power and invincibility that leads to victory.

Compare the moral state of Russian mercenary from the middle of nowhere that came to foreign, unfamiliar territory in order to make some money, steal a loo and run away as soon as possible – with the spirits of Ukrainian soldiers that protect their country, the future of their children.

During the preparation of these notes, dedicated to research of Polish colleagues, my attention caught an article of the Prime Ministers of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia – Mateush Moravetski, Petr Fial and Eduard Heger, for an influential American magazine “Foreign Affairs”. State men claim: if Russia won and Ukraine felt, Central Europe could be the next one. Victory of Ukraine now would decrease chances that Ukraine’s supporters will have to shed their own blood in the future.

There is an important thought of three Prime Ministers about the “absence of space in the Western-European region for frozen conflicts and endless wars”. The heads of governments are united in their aspiration: “We must continue the course in Ukraine, defeat the dark forces of revanchism and support Kyiv for victory.”

I do not believe in the longevity of this war, it is already going on too long. Besides all rational considerations in favor of its quick end (2024 presidential elections in the USA, ambiguous position of China, etc.) there is another mystical feeling.

The black swan’s waiting.

Belief in an incomprehensible turn of history – when over the Kremlin will fly not just Ukrainian drones (although it will be a sign of victory), but when the Black Swans, harbingers of the fall of the Third Rome – the racist Evil Empire, will appear.

And we will take part in the scientific conference of Jagiellonian University on this  topic.

Juri Scherbak, writer and diplomat

Translated by Maksym Maliienko